Latest Thomson Reuters report suggests EU emissions trading reform is finally taking effect, while Obama's Clean Power Plan could pave the way for surge in US carbon markets
"To my knowledge this has not been seriously discussed in Europe but it's obviously something that could be interesting to look at, since transport emissions are growing in Europe and it's tricky to find good ways to curb them," Nordeng suggests.
Also in the US, President Obama's Clean Power Plan remains a central plank in the emissions reduction plans he submitted to the UN ahead of the Paris Summit. The policy contains a requirement, under regulation 111D, for states to develop "standards of performance" that measure emissions reductions. Nordeng says the regulation seems to represent a "clear push" for them to consider market-based mechanisms for tackling emissions. The hope is that now well established regional carbon markets in the US could receive a further boost.
However in China, where pilot projects are underway to test different carbon-trading systems ahead of a nationwide rollout in 2017, the outlook is less clear. It is still uncertain what form the Chinese carbon market will take, says Nordeng, with key questions over trading allowances and market liberalisation yet to be answered.
"Basically, 2016 will be a transition period for China. Everyone is waiting for more clarity on the 2017 rules," he says. He warns that for the Chinese system to secure high trading volumes, it will need to relax its rules to go beyond ‘'spot trading' - where deals are decided for instant delivery - to more trading of derivatives, futures, and forward contracts.
"In all seven pilots they only allow for spot trading," he says. "And in Europe 95 per cent of the trading is in derivatives, futures and forward contracts. I think if they wanted to have higher trade volumes they would need to open up [the market] for that."
Despite this, the progress made this year - particularly on European reform and North American expansion - has gone a long way to restore investor confidence in the value of carbon markets, with the market expanding nine per cent last year to €48.4bn.
Nordeng argues the sector is better placed than it was a few years ago. "Two years ago it was a question of whether the Europeans will be able to reform their system," he recalls. "You had Australia pulling out, and [carbon markets] didn't seem to be gathering much momentum. I think some people were also very sceptical about whether the Chinese were really serious about their plans. So I think what has been proven over the last couple of years is that it definitely has more political momentum globally than it had two years ago."
The challenge now is for countries to continue the hard work on forming - and reforming - their nascent carbon markets so they deliver on the climate action pledged at Paris, and grow to form a meaningful, effective component of low-carbon economies.
This article is part of BusinessGreen's Road to Paris hub, hosted in association with PwC.
