Give the people what they want

The public have spoken, and what they want is more climate action. 

That is the unequivocal conclusion of one of the largest polling exercises ever undertaken, after the UN surveyed more than 75,000 people across 77 countries to assess attitudes towards climate change. The poll found four out of five people globally want their governments to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. Moreover, 86 per cent of those quizzed want to see their countries set aside geopolitical differences and work together with other nations to tackle escalating climate impacts.

Large majorities in all the world's largest emitting economies want to see bolder decarbonisation efforts, and 72 per cent of respondents expressed support for a quick transition away from fossil fuels. Just seven per cent of people said their country should not transition away from fossil fuels.  

Over half of people think about climate change daily or weekly, and 53 per cent are more worried about climate change than they were last year.

The results are remarkable, but not really that surprising given multiple polls in multiple countries tell the same story. Clear and often large majorities of people are worried about climate change, want to see much more action to tackle it, and are frustrated at the sluggish pace of the collective response to a serious threat. 

There are two cynical and related responses to these types of results - responses that have been much in evidence on the few occasions climate change has featured in the UK election campaign to date. 

The first is that climate action is a classic 'motherhood and apple pie' issue that people will inevitably say they are in favour of when asked. And the second is that the public may support climate action in general, but once they understand the specific policies and costs involved they are likely to withdraw their backing. People are fickle like that. 

There is some truth to this analysis, even if it is often peddled by vested interests and climate sceptics who want to see any and all decarbonisation efforts blocked. There is a risk of backlash to specific climate policies that could cause disruption to the public, as the German government recently found with its plans to ban the sale of new gas boilers.  

But this argument in favour of caution and delay also risks obscuring some bigger truths. Firstly, there is nothing wrong with 'motherhood and apple pie'. Why can't people have nice things? Isn't it the job of politics and business to give it to them? Isn't it dangerous to fail to even try to meet the needs of the demos?

Secondly, is it not a little patronising and condescending to suggest the public do not understand the implications of their desire for climate action? There have been decades of well funded campaigns working to highlight the costs and complexities associated with tackling climate change - campaigns that have repeatedly exaggerated the costs and downplayed the benefits of the net zero transition. Rishi Sunak is in the middle of yet another such campaign right now.

And yet, the public still clearly want to see bolder climate action and faster decarbonisation. Maybe they understand the issues and know their own minds. Maybe they think climate action obviously needs to accelerate and it is the job of political and business leaders to manage the trade-offs, to minimise the costs, to ensure the burdens and benefits are fairly shared. 

And maybe, far from opening the door to populists by pursuing more ambitious climate policies, politicians are in fact fuelling support for populists by ignoring what the public is telling them about the most important issue of the age. 

I once asked the former Shell boss Ben van Beurden what he told his shareholders about the prospect of 3C+ warming this century. His evasive, but revealing response was that the public will not stand for 3C of warming. But the public are trying to say precisely that and are being ignored. And if the world does face 3C of warming and all the chaos that entails, then we know from history that the siren song of nationalists and populists promising simple fixes and ever higher border walls will become more alluring for many.   

The public overwhelmingly wants bolder climate action. The world's biggest businesses want bolder climate action. All the world's governments say they want bolder climate action. Yes, there are always reasons to go slower, to be more cautious. But maybe we can afford to be a bit more confident that most people say what they mean and mean what they say.