The Prime Minister's attacks on environmental zealots distract from a policy programme that is increasingly unlikely to deliver on legally-binding climate goals
"Nothing has changed," as Theresa May once declared in the midst of a campaign that increasingly looks like an exemplar of professionalism compared to the current government's auto-satirical attempt to find ever more ingenious ways to punch itself in the face. For all the talk of a 'clear plan', 'bold action', and 'secure future', and Rishi Sunak's extremely online jabs at 'eco zealotry', yesterday's Conservative Manifesto was essentially a promise to continue with the current government's strategy. Given this is the strategy that has objectively failed to revive the UK economy and has delivered some of the worst polling numbers in the Conservative Party's long history, it is a remarkable gambit that will prompt fresh questions as to whether Number 10 has just given up. This time nothing really has changed.
The sense of continuity Sunak was particularly apparent in the sections on climate change, energy, and the environment, where there was a notable paucity of new policy proposals, investment, or ideas.
In some ways, this is good news. The commitments to triple offshore wind capacity, deliver a fleet of new nuclear reactors, build the long-promised carbon capture hubs, continue the electric vehicle charging network roll out, maintain the recent farming subsidy reforms, introduce a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and fast-track grid connections all provide businesses and investors with welcome clarity. It also underscores how there is less distance between the Tories and Labour on a host of key green policy issues than either Party would like you to think.
But simply recommitting to existing policy plans the government has failed to deliver to date is never going to be sufficient to either meet the UK's climate goals or bolster its competitiveness in critical industries. It is a policy platform that should help boost green investment, but is still clearly unfit for purpose.
Meanwhile, where there are new policy proposals they are either performative - the Climate Change Committee already has a remit to consider the cost and energy security implications of its recommendations - or they will actively make it harder to meet climate goals, for example through the plans for new gas power plants (with no mention of CCS), the annual licensing of oil and gas projects, and the unilateral blocking of local air quality and traffic calming measures.
It is impossible to see how this manifesto is compatible with Sunak's repeated assertions the UK's emissions targets will be met, even before you consider the risk of nuclear project delays or higher than expected carbon capture costs.
It is also, in the words of E3G's Ed Matthew, a "manifesto for economic decline". In multiple areas where there is huge opportunity to catalyse growth or enhance energy security, the manifesto has next to nothing to say. There is no new money for energy efficiency, barely a mention of green buildings, and little to say on electric vehicles. There is hardly anything on more sustainable diets, active travel, or heat pumps. There is scant mention of innovation, skills, or green investment. Climate resilience is notable only by its absence.
Most glaring, there is little in the way of the meaningful planning reform that virtually everyone agrees is essential if there is to be any chance of either meeting climate goals or reviving the UK's economy. Sunak keeps talking about minimising the cost of the net zero transition, and then his manifesto proudly promises to retain restrictions on wind and solar farm development and even floats the idea of a presumption in favour of burying new grid transmission projects.
The government deserves considerable credit for having helped cut UK emissions by more than half since 1990 and Sunak is right to have resisted the calls from his right to ditch the net zero agenda altogether. If enacted, today's manifesto would enable continued decarbonisation and would help ensure green industries keep outperforming the wider economy. The hope is the Conservatives do not ditch this policy platform entirely if they lose the election.
But ultimately this is a manifesto that singularly fails to respond to the challenges and opportunities of the age. It is a recipe for squandering the leadership position the UK has carved out in many of the industries that will dominate the 21st century and a blueprint for ensuring the country's legally binding emissions targets are missed. It puts another sizeable dent in the increasingly battered political consensus on the need to accelerate climate action. And despite Sunak's promises to the contrary, it will actually serve to make the UK less energy secure and more exposed to volatile fossil fuel prices.
Nothing has changed, but it really should have done.
A version of this article first appeared as part of BusinessGreen's Overnight Briefing email, which is available to all BusinessGreen Intelligence members.
