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Global solar installations to exceed most industry forecasts with 593GW new capacity expected this year, Ember claims
Solar installations worldwide are set to exceed most industry predictions with 593GW of new capacity forecast to be added by the end of 2024, according to a new analysis from think tank Ember.
The energy think tank said new capacity additions are set to rise 29 per cent year-on-year, building on the 87 per cent increase seen in 2023. The report predicts new solar capacity in 2024 will exceed in one year the 540GW of new coal power capacity added since 2010.
Ember's data for the period through to July this year closely matches forecasts made by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), but it is almost 200GW higher than the main case outlook published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in January 2024. The rapid growth has led some prominent organisations to revise their forecasts for the year, with SolarPower Europe increasing their outlook for 2024 from 401GW to 544GW, for example.
"Yet again, solar power is growing faster than people expected, as it establishes itself as the cheapest source of electricity globally," said Euan Graham, electricity data analyst at Ember.
Ember estimates China, the US, India, Germany, and Brazil will together account for 75 per cent of global solar additions this year, with world leader China's having delivered 28 per cent growth year-on-year during the first seven months of 2024.
Moreover, Ember found capacity added in India during the first seven months of 2024 was up 77 per cent year-on-year. By May, India had already surpassed its total solar installations for the whole of 2023.
In the US, solar additions totalled 20GW from January to June 2024, a 55 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, while Germany has already exceeded its solar capacity target for 2024.
At current rates, China is expected to install 334GW of solar capacity, accounting for 56 per cent of global capacity additions this year. India is on track to install 23GW by the end of the year, and Germany is poised to meet the solar capacity target for 2026 set out in its National Energy and Climate Plan two years early.
Data on Chinese solar exports also reveals significant growth in emerging markets such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, UAE, Thailand, and Oman, Ember said.
"Strong growth in established markets is combining with rapid acceleration elsewhere to make solar additions higher than ever before," said Graham. "Countries need to plan for a solar-powered future to make the most of the cheap power this technology can provide."
Ember's study comes just days after the IEA urged governments to accelerate efforts to expand grid infrastructure worldwide, or risk losing out on the full benefits that should result from the accelerating roll out of solar and wind power projects.
The UK also secured 3.3GW of solar contracts in a record-breaking Contract for Difference auction earlier this month, and the government recently gave the green light to "the UK's largest" solar farm at a site on the border between Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire.
The prospect of another record breaking year for the solar industry will be warmly welcomed by green groups, but Ember warned that "continued rapid progress" is needed to bring international climate and clean energy goals within reach.
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