Analysis from Oil Change International warns COP hosts UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil are all planning to expand fossil fuel production
The self-styled troika of COP hosts are continuing to invest in expanding their fossil fuel production, in apparent defiance of the commitment made by countries at last year's COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai to transition away from the use of fossil fuels in energy systems.
That is the conclusion of a new report today from campaign group Oil Change International, which reveals how last year's COP hosts the UAE, this year's hosts Azerbaijan, and next year's hosts Brazil are collectively planning to increase their oil and gas production by 33 per cent by 2035.
The three countries teamed up under the banner of the COP Troika to co-ordinate efforts to deliver on the goals agreed at the COP28 Summit in Dubai, including the high profile targets to treble renewables generation and double rates of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 and the global pledge to transition away from fossil fuels.
The group is also seeking to broker a new agreement on climate finance at this year's COP29 Climate Summit in Azerbaijan and deliver an ambitious new wave of national climate action plans - known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the UN jargon - ahead of the COP30 Summit next year in Brazil.
However, today's report will fuel concerns among businesses and campaigners that the group has made scant progress in translating the historic commitment to transition away from fossil fuels into an actionable plan for phasing down fossil fuel production.
The analysis - which is based on industry data - shows the UAE and Brazil are on track to increase oil and gas production by 37 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, by 2035. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is on track for a four per cent increase.
Oil Change International said that taken together the countries representing the previous, current, and forthcoming COP Presidencies were equivalent to the fourth largest oil and gas producer globally.
"The COP Troika could prove valuable if it catalyses more ambitious policies to limit warming to 1.5C," said Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager at Oil Change International. "However, expanding fossil fuel production is fundamentally incompatible with an ambition to submit '1.5-aligned NDCs. Such actions are not only hypocritical but also set a dangerous precedent for other nations, undermining global efforts to address climate change.
"The Troika can't have it both ways. It's time to choose: fossil fuel expansion or a livable future. The world is watching."
Linda Kalcher, executive director of Strategic Perspectives, said 2024 represented "the moment of truth for the agreement to move away from fossil fuels reached in Dubai".
"The NDCs will show if countries were serious about reducing their coal, oil, and gas addiction," she said. "All eyes are on the Troika now to show leadership and credibility when they publish their own plans. It's in the UAE's interest to show that their historic deal reached in Dubai was not just hot air."
Ilan Zugman, managing director for Latin America at campaign group 350.org, urged COP30 hosts Brazil to take a lead in scaling back fossil fuel production, as it calls on other countries to submit ambitious NDCs.
"We have higher hopes for President Lula of Brazil, but his credibility as a climate leader is at stake," he said. "As long as Brazil pursues oil and gas extraction, particularly in the Amazon, talk of decarbonising and a fair energy transition is mere rhetoric. Lula rightly calls on wealthy nations to fulfil their financial obligations, but without halting fossil fuel expansion, he risks undermining the very goals he champions. The world is watching, and Brazil must set ambitious climate targets that end fossil fuel expansion and pave the way for a just transition to renewables."
The report comes as negotiations continue to try and secure a more ambitious agreement on climate finance at the upcoming COP28 Summit in Baku.
Developing economies are demanding an increase on the $100bn a year climate finance target that ran from 2020 to 2025, which has only belatedly been met by richer nations. But industrialised nations are resisting calls for a major increase in grant programmes and instead advocating for sweeping reforms to financial institutions to try and boost flows of private finance towards climate-related projects in developing and emerging economies.
Meanwhile, the new UK government is facing a particular challenge in delivering on its previous climate finance pledges, following several years of under-spend under the Conservative government.
Carbon Brief today reported that a freedom of information request had revealed how international climate spending averaged just £450m a year for the three years from 2021, resulting in less than half the amount of funding pledged to poorer nations was delivered.
According to Carbon Brief, UK funding will have to exceed £800m a year for the next two years if the previous target of £11.6bn of climate finance by 2026 is to be honoured.
Labour has said it will ensure the target is met, but departments are also under intense pressure to trim spending ahead of an Autumn Budget in which Chancellor Rachel Reeves is attempting to tackle a £22bn budget 'black hole'.
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